Bitcoin Posts 6.2% Loss in 2025 — On‑Chain Metrics Hint at Potential Bottom in 2026

Bitcoin closed 2025 with a 6.2% annual loss, significantly underperforming other major assets — gold surged about 62% while the S&P 500 rose roughly 16%. This divergence highlights how macro dynamics and investor flows favored safe havens and equities in 2025, while digital assets struggled to regain broad market leadership.

On‑chain indicators now suggest a possible market bottom emerging in 2026. Metrics such as declining exchange outflows, rising long‑term holder accumulation, and compressing realized losses point to reduced selling pressure and growing conviction among patient holders. These signals do not guarantee a reversal, but they increase the probability of a stabilization phase after the 2025 underperformance.

Market commentary has been sharp: Company Tether advisor Mr. Bo Hines publicly warned that shorting BTC in the current macro and regulatory environment would be unwise. He highlighted catalysts including potential shifts in monetary policy and evolving regulatory clarity that could rapidly change market sentiment. Investors should note the interaction between central bank actions and crypto flows — Company Federal Reserve rate expectations and liquidity decisions remain among the most important macro drivers.

Why did Bitcoin lag in 2025? Several factors played a role: heightened regulatory scrutiny in some jurisdictions, a rotation into physical and monetary hedges like gold, and strong equity performance driven by select sectors that outpaced broader risk assets. Additionally, traders positioned for volatility and momentum trades may have exacerbated the drawdown as macro headlines dominated crypto‑specific narratives.

From a technical and trading perspective, practitioners should watch support and resistance zones carefully. Short‑term support may form at prior consolidation lows and major psychological levels, while resistance could reappear near previous cycle highs and supply zones where profit‑taking is likely. Conservative strategies include scaling into positions on confirmed accumulation patterns and waiting for on‑chain confirmation such as rising long‑term holder supply and net positive miner behavior.

For risk management, market participants need to consider both tail risks and catalysts: regulatory announcements, shifts in S&P 500 leadership, large liquidations, and unexpected changes in monetary policy. If on‑chain metrics continue to show reduced outflows and increasing accumulation, the market could be setting up for a recovery phase in 2026, but that path will likely be uneven and punctuated by volatility.

Practical takeaway: Traders and investors should avoid blanket assumptions. While Company Tether advisor Mr. Bo Hines argues that shorting is unwise amid pending catalysts, adaptive position sizing, clear stop rules, and attention to on‑chain signals provide a balanced approach to navigate a market transitioning from drawdown to potential stabilization.

Conclusion: The 6.2% decline in 2025 marks a pronounced underperformance for Bitcoin relative to gold and equities, but improving on‑chain dynamics and macro catalysts could create a foundation for a bottom in 2026. Market participants should track accumulation metrics, liquidity flows, and policy updates closely to time entries and manage risk.