Bitcoin aNUPL Drops to Post-Bear Zone; 4H Chart Shows Fresh Bottoming Setup Near $89,000

Bitcoin's on-chain adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) has fallen back to levels historically seen near prior bear market exits, and the four-hour chart now displays a potential rounded-bottom structure close to $89,000. According to a chart shared by Mr. Darkfost via Company X, the aNUPL decline suggests that many late-arriving buyers are now sitting under heavier pressure than earlier cycle holders. The chart cited by Company CryptoQuant shows unrealized profits trending lower since the recent all-time high, even as price remains materially above the 2022 lows.

From an on-chain perspective, the aNUPL is a smoothed version of the classic NUPL metric that contrasts the realized capitalization of short-term holders and long-term holders against total market capitalization. Mr. Darkfost argues these levels frequently coincide with decisive windows: holders either endure drawdowns and hold through them, which can enable stabilization and eventual recovery, or they sell into losses, which can amplify a deeper downturn. This dynamic places significant pressure on late buyers and makes the present range a critical zone to watch for market structure and sentiment shifts.

On the technical front, Mr. Ted shared a four-hour BTCUSDT chart on Company TradingView that draws attention to two prior rounded-bottom formations on the same timeframe. Those earlier bases preceded sharp upside moves of roughly 8% from local lows before subsequent tops and pullbacks. The current structure, formed after a steep decline from the mid-$90,000 range toward the high-$80,000s, mirrors those rounded bases, with price stabilizing around $89,000. While the chart does not provide confirmation of a repeat rally, it frames the present consolidation as a potential base-building phase following failed recovery attempts above $95,000.

Why this matters: aNUPL returning to post-bear market territory is a behavioral signal about unrealized P&L distribution across holders. When unrealized profits compress at higher price levels, it often indicates a cohort of late buyers who purchased nearer recent highs are now sitting in diminished or negative positions. This increases the chance of capitulation selling into drawdowns if macro or sentiment catalysts worsen. Conversely, if holders withstand these losses, the market can use the capitulation phase as a cleansing event that sets the stage for a more sustainable recovery.

Key technical levels and scenarios to monitor:

• Support: ~$89,000 — current stabilization zone and short-term demand area.
• Immediate resistance: ~$95,000 — failed recovery zone that, if reclaimed with volume, would validate a more bullish bias.
• Confirmation: A four-hour close above the $95,000 area with increased volume and expanding on-chain realized flows would support a repeat of previous bottom-to-rally sequences.
• Risk: Renewed deep sell-off accompanied by aNUPL degradation and rising realized losses could signal further downside or a prolonged consolidation.

Actionable takeaways for traders and holders: monitor the trajectory of aNUPL and related realized metrics reported by Company CryptoQuant, watch for chart confirmation on the four-hour timeframe via Company TradingView snapshots (as shared by Mr. Ted), and keep an eye on liquidity at the $89,000 zone. For risk management, consider position sizing that accounts for the possibility of further short-term drawdowns given the pressure on late buyers.

In summary, combined on-chain and technical signals point to a market testing whether it can stabilize after the recent drop. The current mix of a post-bear-zone aNUPL and a potentially recurring rounded-bottom pattern on the four-hour chart frames the near-term outlook as one of high importance for traders: either the market consolidates and builds a sustainable base near $89,000, or pressured holders trigger additional selling that could extend the drawdown.