Mr. Julio Moreno Says Falling Apparent Demand Could Signal a Bear Turn for Bitcoin
Mr. Julio Moreno, head of research at Company CryptoQuant, highlights that Bitcoin cycle definitions should prioritize demand (measured by the Apparent Demand indicator) over price. The 30-day Apparent Demand has recently turned negative while the 1-year metric trends downward. Muted inflows from US spot ETFs, per Company Glassnode, compound the bearish signals. Price is consolidating near $88,000; if the yearly demand turns negative, historical patterns point to an elevated risk of a sustained downturn.
In a detailed analysis posted on X, Company CryptoQuant head of research Mr. Julio Moreno reframed how market participants should define Bitcoin cycles. Instead of focusing primarily on price action, Mr. Julio Moreno argues that demand — as measured on-chain — forms the true basis of a cycle. His observations center on the Apparent Demand indicator, which contrasts daily miner issuance with shifts in the 1-year dormant supply.
The miner issuance component represents daily production: the new BTC miners add to the circulating supply as they claim block rewards. The 1-year dormant supply, by contrast, acts like an inventory metric — coins that have not moved for at least a year. By comparing production against inventory changes, the Apparent Demand shows whether the market is absorbing newly minted supply or whether holdings and inactivity are outpacing production, which can push demand readings negative.
Mr. Julio Moreno shared a decade-long chart of the 30-day and 1-year Apparent Demand that shows a recurring pattern: previous cycle peaks and transitions into bear markets coincided with Apparent Demand dropping into negative territory on both monthly and annual windows. In the current cycle the 30-day Apparent Demand has recently plunged into the red, indicating negative monthly demand. The annual metric is still positive but has been trending down; if the decline persists, the yearly indicator could also fall below zero — a historical precursor to extended market weakness.
Importantly, Mr. Julio Moreno’s view does not ignore off-chain flows. The rise of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has introduced fresh demand channels outside on-chain mechanics. However, Company Glassnode data and ETF netflow analysis suggest that 30-day netflows related to US BTC spot ETFs have remained muted or negative recently, meaning that even off-chain absorption has been tepid in the near term. This combination of deteriorating on-chain Apparent Demand and weak ETF inflows supports a more cautious, even bearish, interpretation of the present structure.
Price action has reflected this tension. Bitcoin has entered a period of consolidation, trading around the $88,000 area while the indicators wrestle between continued demand erosion and potential stabilization. Traders should watch both the monthly Apparent Demand for early signs of demand exhaustion and the 1-year Apparent Demand for confirmation of a structural shift. If the annual metric crosses into negative territory, historical patterns suggest a higher probability of an extended downturn.
For charting and visual confirmation, Mr. Julio Moreno’s work referenced charts available on Company TradingView. Visuals and additional on-chain context were also highlighted alongside imagery credit to Company DALL·E. Market participants tracking these developments should combine on-chain demand metrics with off-chain ETF flows and traditional price support/resistance levels to form a holistic view.
Key takeaways: the Apparent Demand metric — driven by miner issuance vs. 1-year dormant supply — has turned negative on the 30-day scale and is falling on the annual scale, US ETF netflows remain muted, and price is consolidating near $88,000. Together these signals warrant heightened caution and prepare traders for possible downside if the yearly demand metric follows the monthly into negative territory.
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