Bitcoin Stalled Below $90,000 as Trend Pulse and Moving Averages Keep Market in Bear Mode

Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the psychological $90,000 level, with price action drifting into a zone of hesitation rather than conviction. After a bearish breakdown below $90K, traders are confronting a market that shows more indecision than directional momentum. This piece analyzes the macro signals highlighted by Mr. Axel Adler and the technical constraints imposed by key moving averages, volume behavior, and quarterly returns.

Trend Pulse and Momentum Context: Mr. Axel Adler points to a macro indicator called Trend Pulse to explain why momentum has faded. Since January 19 the market has remained in Bear Mode, with the Bull phase absent for roughly 83 consecutive days. Two reinforced signals explain the current stance: the short-term momentum measure (14-day return) has flipped negative, and the SMA30 vs SMA200 trend signal also turned negative, creating a double-negative setup that pushed Trend Pulse from Neutral into Bear.

Quarterly Returns and Sentiment: The quarterly return (90D) provides additional macro context. Historically, readings above +75% align with euphoria, readings below 0% signal broad pessimism, and values below -30% reflect capitulation. Bitcoin’s current quarterly return near -19% signals notable weakness but not the extreme typically associated with a final bottom. The 7-day change (-6.8%) following the $90K breakdown suggests downside momentum has accelerated recently, leaving the market in moderate pessimism rather than definitive capitulation.

Price Structure and Moving Averages: From a technical perspective, BTC has printed a lower-high structure since the early November peak and remains capped by its key moving averages. Price trades below the mid-term SMA (SMA30) and the long-term SMA (SMA200), both of which are sloping downward, indicating that broader momentum still favors the downside. The most recent rejection occurred when BTC briefly reached the $95K–$97K area before rolling over and slipping back toward the range lows. The red long-term average remains well above the current price near the low-$100Ks, underscoring how much ground would be needed to reestablish a sustained macro uptrend.

Volume and Market Participation: Volume dynamics favor sellers: selloffs have occurred with stronger volume relative to short-lived bounces, suggesting that downside moves are met with higher urgency. Absent a material shift in participation—where buyers step in with conviction—short-term recoveries are likely to be capped at resistance zones near the mid-$90Ks.

What Would Signal Improvement? According to Mr. Axel Adler, the first trigger to move out of Bear Mode would be the 14-day return rising back above 0, shifting the regime from Bear to Neutral. A full transition to Bull Mode would require a second condition: the SMA30 crossing above the SMA200. Given current divergence between these averages, such a crossover would likely demand 3–4 weeks of sustained upside rather than a rapid bounce.

Market Implications and Key Levels: For bullish conviction, reclaiming $90,000 and then holding above the $92K–$94K zone is essential. Failure to do so opens the risk of a deeper pullback toward the mid-$80K region. Traders should monitor Trend Pulse, the 14-day return, SMA30/SMA200 dynamics, and volume on moves to gauge whether recent weakness is a temporary shakeout or the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.

Data and Visuals: Charts and price visuals underpinning this analysis are available via Company TradingView. The featured illustrative image was generated using Company ChatGPT.

Conclusion: Bitcoin sits at a decision point: moderate pessimism without final capitulation. Until the market sees the 14-day return move positive and the SMA30 begin to approach the SMA200, expect choppy price action capped by the mid-$90Ks, with downside risk toward the mid-$80Ks if sellers regain control.