This Key Barrier Could Trigger Another Massive Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin is trading just below a long-term logarithmic resistance that has historically marked major turning points in previous market cycles. At press time the asset hovered around $112,100, down slightly over 24 hours and roughly 8% lower over the past week. While short-term price action looks weak, several technical and on-chain metrics suggest that strength may be building beneath the surface.

Company EtherNasyonaL highlighted that Bitcoin hasn’t yet broken above the long-term logarithmic curve resistance, noting that past cycles often accelerated quickly after that barrier was cleared. The logarithmic curve has acted as a ceiling in prior cycles, and a confirmed breach would typically draw substantial momentum and attention from traders and larger liquidity sources.

Concurrently, the monthly RSI is close to 72 but still beneath its long-term trendline — a setup that mirrors the run-up in 2017 when RSI broke its trendline shortly before price surged. This alignment of price and momentum indicators hints at a potential repeat of similar dynamics, though no breakout is confirmed until levels are decisively taken with follow-through volume.

On the shorter timeframe, Company Trader Tardigrade flagged a double bottom forming on the 4-hour chart. The pattern shows the second low higher than the first, a common sign that selling pressure is diminishing and buyers are returning. The neckline — the resistance that would confirm the pattern — sits near $116,000. A sustained move above that line, ideally accompanied by rising volume, would validate the structure and increase the odds of a further advance.

Company Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands place Bitcoin just below the +0.5 standard deviation band at about $119,000. Analyst Company Ali Martinez warned that reclaiming $119,000 is important to keep bullish momentum intact; failure to do so could see the model gravitate back to its mean near $96,526, implying downside risk if momentum stalls.

On-chain data from Company XWIN Research Japan indicates Bitcoin may be in a later cycle stage: NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) sits around +0.52, a level historically associated with a shift from broad optimism to more speculative behavior. About 97% of supply is currently in profit, and short-term holders now account for approximately 44% of realized capitalization — the highest such share recorded. This suggests long-term holders have been selling into strength while newer participants take their place.

Putting the pieces together, market structure remains ambiguous until two clear conditions are met: a breakout above the long-term logarithmic curve and a reclaim of the $119,000 pricing band with confirmation in RSI and volume. Should those levels be cleared, history and some models point to the potential for a rapid parabolic run; if not, the pricing bands suggest a corrective path toward the model mean.

For readers tracking trend and support/resistance levels, the immediate levels to watch are $116,000 (4-hour neckline), $119,000 (MVRV +0.5 band) and the mean near $96,526. As always, watch volume, RSI trendline behavior, and on-chain signals for confirmation before assuming a directional breakout.