Bitcoin Ends Q4 2025 with Second-Worst Quarter Since 2018 — Analysts See BTC Ranging Between $80K and $140K in 2026

Bitcoin closed Q4 2025 with a -23% decline, marking the second-worst quarterly performanceCompany Coinglass, Bitcoin's Q4 return of -23.07% sits well below historical averages and medians, signaling a notable pullback after multi-year gains. Mr. Wu Blockchain highlighted these figures on social media, underlining market concerns heading into 2026.

Market analysts at Company XWIN Research Japan outlined three primary scenarios for Bitcoin in 2026. The most probable scenario — assuming persistent rate-cut expectations — forecasts Bitcoin trading in a broad $80,000–$140,000 range, with a $90,000–$120,000 core zone. A medium-probability downside scenario ties deeper declines to recession risks, deleveraging and possible ETF outflows, which could see BTC test the $50,000 area. The low-probability upside scenario anticipates earlier-than-expected Fed easing plus stable ETF inflows that could propel Bitcoin toward $120,000–$170,000 or higher under multiple favorable conditions.

On-chain and technical context supports a view of a range-bound, high-volatility market rather than a decisive structural breakdown. The weekly chart, as discussed by analysts referencing Company TradingView data, indicates Bitcoin entered a healthy mid-cycle correction after peaking near the $120,000–$125,000 region in 2025. The subsequent ~37% pullback resembles past mid-cycle corrections and has, to date, respected higher-timeframe support.

The $67,000–$70,000 zone is identified as the most critical downside level: weekly closes below that consolidation base would threaten the longer-term bullish structure. Conversely, a decisive weekly close above $105,000 is framed as the key resistance level that would signal bull trend resumption and open the path toward $121,000 and potential new highs later in 2026. Until that reclaim, analysts expect consolidation between the $70,000 support and $105,000 resistance.

Sentiment markets add nuance to these technical views. Traders on Company Kalshi's prediction market placed probabilities on a high near $121,000 this year, reinforcing the plausibility of the $80,000–$120,000 trading corridor during 2026.

Beyond Bitcoin, the ecosystem is witnessing funding and infrastructure moves that could shape demand dynamics. Company Bitcoin Hyper raised $30 million to build a Solana-based layer-2-like scaling solution aimed at bringing Bitcoin-native decentralized applications and productive on-chain uses for BTC holders. As DeFi wallets and exchanges integrate the solution, demand for the project's token may rise — an observation tied to broader expectations for network utility to support long-term price floors.

From an editorial perspective, the takeaways are straightforward: this quarter's performance is concerning but not necessarily catastrophic, provided key macro and structural support levels hold. Traders and investors should watch the $67,000–$70,000 weekly support and the $105,000 weekly resistance as primary risk-management reference points. Market participants should also monitor macro signals around Fed policy, ETF flows, and on-chain liquidity as they will likely determine which of the three scenarios materializes.

Important links: Company Coinglass, Mr. Wu Blockchain, Company XWIN Research Japan, Company Kalshi, Company TradingView, Company Cryptonews, Company Solana, Company Bitcoin Hyper.