Bitcoin analysis: Retest of $93,500 still possible; a red 2025 candle would threaten the four-year cycle theory

The latest technical discussion around Bitcoin suggests that while a retest of $93,500 remains within the realm of possibility before the yearly close, there is a material risk that a red 2025 yearly candle would cast doubt on the established four-year cycle theory. This analysis explores the key support and resistance levels, the market scenarios traders should prepare for, and the implications a negative yearly close would have for mid- and long-term price expectations.

Short-term outlook and resistance: After recent volatility, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance around the $93,000 to $95,000 band. A successful push above this zone would reassert bullish momentum and could encourage renewed buying into the year-end. However, if the price fails to decisively break and hold above these levels, the market structure would favor a retest of lower supports, bringing the $80,000 to $85,000 area back into focus as critical demand zones.

Support levels and downside scenarios: The most important supports to watch are the $85,000 and $70,000 levels. A drop below $85,000 would increase the likelihood of a deeper correction toward $70,000. A sustained move below $70,000 would be significant, as it would undermine a number of bullish narratives and increase the probability of a prolonged consolidation phase.

Yearly candle and the four-year cycle theory: Traders and analysts often look at yearly candles to assess macro-level trends. A green 2025 yearly candle would reinforce the traditional four-year cycle thesis that ties major bull runs and bear markets to Bitcoin halving intervals and market psychology. Conversely, a red 2025 yearly candle would present a notable challenge to that theory, suggesting that the timing and amplitude of market cycles may be shifting or becoming less predictable. It would also likely trigger re-evaluations of long-term models used by institutional and retail investors.

Implications for risk management: Given the potential for both a retest and a bearish yearly outcome, risk management is paramount. Traders should consider scaled position sizing, defined stop-loss levels, and clear scenario plans for both upside continuation and downside breakdown. Long-term holders should weigh whether current levels align with their cost basis and whether adding on weakness is consistent with their investment thesis.

Market sentiment and external drivers: Sentiment indicators remain mixed. While on-chain metrics still show accumulation in some cohorts, macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions can rapidly alter the technical picture. Any major regulatory announcements, macro shocks, or shifts in institutional flows could tip the balance and accelerate the move toward either a decisive break above resistance or a deeper retracement.

Key takeaways: Prepare for two primary scenarios: a) a bullish continuation that sustains a retest and breakout above $93,500 leading to renewed upside momentum; or b) a failure to hold key supports resulting in a meaningful correction and the risk of a red 2025 yearly candle that would challenge the four-year cycle narrative. Traders and investors should adjust position sizing, set clear stop-loss thresholds, and monitor on-chain and macro signals closely.

Conclusion: While a retest of $93,500 is still possible before year-end, the market must prove its strength to avoid a scenario that threatens long-standing cycle-based expectations. Close attention to support levels, decisive price action around $93,000 to $95,000, and the eventual yearly close will be essential for determining whether the four-year cycle remains a reliable framework.