Bitcoin's 2025 Santa Rally Fades — Fractal Patterns Raise Risk of Drop to $70,000

Bitcoin has seen its expected Santa Rally for 2025 lose momentum, with the price trading around $87,440 as chart fractals reproduce patterns reminiscent of the year-end 2021 peak and subsequent crash. Market participants are noting only a minimal advance of 0.33% amid holiday-season thin liquidity, heightening the possibility that historical patterns could repeat and push the price down toward the $70,000 zone if support levels break.

Technically, the current fractal resemblance to December 2021 — when Bitcoin topped near $51,700 before a sharp reversal — is drawing attention from traders who use historical price behavior to identify likely inflection points. The pattern alignment does not guarantee a repeat, but it increases the odds of a deeper corrective phase while market structure and momentum indicators exhibit weakness.

Key levels to watch include the immediate resistance around $90,000 and the more meaningful support band stretching from roughly $78,000 to $75,000. A decisive break below that band would amplify downside risk and open the path toward the psychological and technical target at $70,000. Conversely, reclaiming and holding above $92,000–$95,000 with convincing volume would reduce the probability of a deep sell-off and could invalidate the bearish fractal scenario.

On momentum, the market shows muted bullish signals. Oscillators such as RSI are failing to register sustained bullish divergence, while MACD crossovers lack conviction. Volume profiles during the holiday window remain thin, which can exaggerate moves and produce misleading price behavior. Traders should therefore treat short-term signals with caution and prefer setups with clear risk-reward definitions.

Risk management is paramount in this environment. For those positioned long, sensible tactics include tightening stop-losses below key short-term supports, scaling exposure rather than averaging down indiscriminately, and considering partial profit-taking near resistance. If the price tests the targeted $70,000 level, watch for bullish confirmation — such as higher lows on shorter timeframes, improved volume, or strong buy-side absorption — before initiating fresh long entries.

For short-biased traders, the fractal similarity offers a scenario with defined objectives: look for confirmation through breakdowns beneath the $75,000 support, increased selling volume, and failure to reclaim critical resistances. Risk controls must include clearly defined stop placements above invalidation points and prudently sized positions to withstand potential whipsaws, especially given the low liquidity seasonal context.

In summary, while the fractal resemblance to late 2021 is not a certainty of repetition, it elevates downside risk for Bitcoin. The market's current fragility — reflected in tiny gains and thin volumes — suggests traders adopt disciplined position sizing, monitor the $75,000–$78,000 support band and the $70,000 target, and remain prepared for either a renewed bullish reclaim above resistance or a deeper corrective leg if support fails.