Ethereum Compresses Near $2,950 After $3,000 Rejection — On-Chain Data Underscores Strength Despite ETF Outflows

Ethereum is trading in a tight range around $2,930,950 as of January 25, 2026, following a rejection near the $3,000 level. This pause reflects a short-term combination of spot ETH ETF selling and broader macro caution rather than any observable breakdown in network fundamentals. The technical picture shows compression and range-bound price action, while on-chain indicators and protocol-level metrics continue to point to resilient activity and rebuilding demand.

ETF Pressure Is Weighting Price, Not Structure: Between January 20 and 23, spot ETH ETF outflows exceeded $600 million, including a notable single-day $250 million exit from Company BlackRock. Those flows cooled short-term momentum and capped ETH below the psychological $3,000 handle. However, flow dynamics look more like rotation and profit-taking than institutional abandonment. When interpreted alongside derivatives metrics, the data suggests that leverage was flushed and crowded longs were normalized rather than a wholesale sell-off of long-term holders.

On-Chain Activity Paints a Different Picture: Beneath the subdued price action, network-level activity remains robust. Daily active addresses have climbed toward 1.3 million, and daily transaction counts are holding between 1.9 million and 2.2 million. Validator-level signals are constructive: exit queues sit near zero, entry queues are rebuilding, and staking participation continues to rise, which tightens circulating supply. Low fees and improved efficiency following recent upgrades are sustaining DeFi usage and app activity. Taken together, this creates a classic "price weak, fundamentals firm" environment that often precedes larger trend resolution.

Geopolitical Noise and Protocol Progress: Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran have added general risk-pro-off risk sentiment to markets, yet ETH has shown relative resilience. Meanwhile, Company Ethereum Foundation has announced an intensified focus on post-quantum security, forming a new Post Quantum (PQ) team led by Mr. Thomas Coratger and including Mr. Justin Drake's public commentary highlighting the Foundation's shift in long-term strategy. These protocol-level commitments—alongside upcoming milestones—support a constructive medium-term outlook.

Technical Levels and Trade Setup: From a technical perspective, ETH is holding above a key support band near $2,850,900, a zone aligned with prior demand and Fibonacci confluence. The RSI remains subdued around 350, signaling caution but not capitulation. A successful reclaim of $3,060 would reopen upside toward $3,190,400, while a clean break below $2,800 risks a deeper retracement toward $2,700. Suggested tactical setup: accumulate near $2,850,900, target the $3,190,400 range, and invalidate positions below $2,700.

Derivative and Whales' Behavior: On-chain tracking shows large addresses accumulating roughly $1 billion worth of ETH during the recent correction. Funding rates and open interest have reset after a period of crowded longs, implying that the market has cleaned out excessive leverage. This combination—whale accumulation, healthier funding, and stable on-chain usage—favors a constructive base-building process beneath the surface price action.

Roadmap and Upgrades Add Conviction: Ethereum's 2026 roadmap, including the Glamsterdam upgrade and subsequent Hegota phase, focuses on scalability, efficiency, and sustainability. Progress on blob infrastructure and accelerated Layer-2 adoption is expected to improve throughput and lower long-term costs, which supports the narrative of sustained growth if macro conditions calm.

Secondary Stories: Bitcoin Hyper and Cross-Chain Innovation: The report also notes momentum behind Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a project aiming to bring Bitcoin-style security to Solana-level speed. While interesting as a cross-chain innovation, this narrative is secondary to the core ETH technical and on-chain developments discussed above. The presale momentum for Bitcoin Hyper highlights market appetite for faster BTC-native smart contract environments but does not alter Ethereum's present structural dynamics.

Conclusion: In sum, the near-term price reaction is largely a function of ETF-related selling and macro caution, but protocol-level indicators and on-chain metrics point to resilient demand and structural strength. Traders should monitor the $2,850,900 support band and the $3,060 resistance reclaim as decisive thresholds. With ongoing roadmap catalysts and active staking dynamics, Ethereum appears positioned to resume a larger trend when macro risk sentiment stabilizes.