Ethereum Struggles to Hold Above $4,220 as Key Support at $3,880 Looms

Ethereum continues to show signs of short-term uncertainty as price action fails to sustain above the critical $4,220 area. After an initial recovery attempt that pushed prices back above $4,000, ETH has consolidated between resistance and support levels, forming a short-term contracting triangle on the hourly chart. Market participants should watch the $3,950 and $3,880 zones closely, since a decisive break below those levels could trigger a sharper decline.

The recent intraday structure shows that Ethereum rebounded from a low near $3,932, but momentum has been capped under the $4,050 mark and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, overcoming the immediate resistance near $4,075 would open the path to the next barriers at $4,150 and the key $4,200 region. A convincing breakout above $4,200 could propel ETH toward the $4,250–$4,350 area and potentially test $4,420 in subsequent sessions.

Conversely, failure to clear the $4,150–$4,200 cluster may invite renewed selling pressure. Immediate downside support rests at the triangle trend line around $3,950, while the first major pivot lies at $3,880. A close and sustained break below $3,880 could accelerate losses toward $3,820 and ultimately the $3,750 region, with a more extended slide targeting $3,640. Traders should treat the $3,880 zone as a critical hinge for the next directional move.

Technically, the hourly MACD is losing bullish momentum while the hourly RSI sits below the 50 midline, signaling that upside strength is waning and that sellers may gain the edge if price cannot reclaim the 100-hour SMA. The existing short-term contracting triangle highlights a compression of volatility; such formations often precede a decisive directional move, so the breakout direction will matter for near-term bias.

Market participants should also note external data sources and feeds: this analysis references price data via Company Kraken, and comparisons with broader market behavior—including how Bitcoin has influenced intraday flows—remain relevant. Institutional and retail positioning, liquidity around the $4,150–$4,220 cluster, and macro catalysts will determine whether ETH resumes its recovery or slides toward lower supports.

Risk management is essential. Traders looking to play continuation to the upside should wait for clear price confirmation above $4,200 with strong volume and a reclaim of the 100-hour SMA. Conversely, short entries or defensive hedges make sense on a confirmed break below $3,880, with targets around $3,820 and $3,750 and a stop above the triangle’s upper trend line. Monitoring momentum indicators like MACD and RSI alongside volume will help confirm the validity of any breakout.

In summary, Ethereum is at a technical crossroads: a bullish breakout above $4,200 would reinstate upward momentum and set sights on $4,350–$4,420, while a decisive breach of $3,880 would likely accelerate a downward correction to lower supports. Traders and analysts should prioritize the $3,950 and $3,880 levels for short-term directional clarity and use volume and indicator confirmation to validate moves.