Mr. Bull Theory: Bitcoin Dip Mirrors 2020 Metals Rally — Big Rally Possible in 2026

Bitcoin is trading near $87,000 in late December 2025 after sliding more than 30% from its October peak above $126,000. At the same time, gold and silver continue to post record-breaking gains, with gold recently reaching a new all-time high near $4,550 and silver spiking to fresh highs below $84. These divergent trajectories have prompted intense debate among market watchers, but Mr. Bull Theory argues that the pattern resembles the setup before one of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies.

In a post shared on X on December 29, Mr. Bull Theory highlighted striking parallels with the aftermath of the March 2020 crash, when central bank liquidity first flowed into precious metals. Gold climbed from about $1,450 to $2,075 by August 2020, and silver surged from roughly $12 to $29. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained range-bound around $9,000–$12,000 for nearly five months before exploding to $64,800 in Q2 2021 — a roughly 440% jump from August 2020 levels.

Fast forward to 2025: metals are leading again. But rather than signaling the end of the crypto cycle, Mr. Bull Theory contends this rotation often precedes capital flowing back into risk assets, including Bitcoin. The analyst suggests that the current metals-first move can be a prelude to a dramatic crypto rally if liquidity conditions rotate in favor of risk assets.

Key structural differences this time could amplify any upside move. Unlike 2020, several potential tailwinds may align in 2026: continued rate cuts, renewed liquidity injections, looser bank leverage rules, clearer crypto regulation, and broader ETF access beyond Bitcoin. Taken together, these factors represent both liquidity and structure — a combination that, according to Mr. Bull Theory, could produce even stronger outcomes than the prior cycle.

Price action in late December shows Bitcoin trading just under $90,000, up about 2% on the day but down nearly 6% year-to-date. Short-term momentum is muted; price has oscillated in the high $86,000s to just above $90,000 over the past week. Monthly performance remains slightly negative, a sign of hesitation rather than mass capitulation. By contrast, gold is up roughly 75% year-to-date and silver has gained more than 170% — pushing BTC-to-gold and BTC-to-silver ratios to multi-year lows and reinforcing the case that Bitcoin may be relatively undervalued.

Mr. Bull Theory paints a scenario where metals stall and liquidity rotates into risk assets: if history repeats in a similar pattern to 2020, Bitcoin could potentially rise more than fourfold into 2026. That is not a guaranteed outcome, but it is the bullish thesis that market participants must weigh alongside macro, regulatory, and technical risks.

Market participants should monitor several indicators to assess the odds: central bank policy guidance and rate-setting actions, clear signs of renewed liquidity, changes to bank leverage frameworks, progress on crypto regulation that broadens institutional participation, and ETF approvals or expansions beyond Bitcoin. Additionally, traders will watch on-chain metrics, derivatives open interest, and BTC-to-metal ratio trends as leading signals of rotation.

Company CryptoPotato first summarized the post and framed the thesis in a broader market context, noting the parallels to 2020 and the potential for a major rally if liquidity and structure align. As always, this view should be balanced with risks: geopolitical shocks, policy missteps, liquidity shocks, or renewed deleveraging events could undercut the bullish narrative.

In short, the current sideways action in BTC looks like a period of consolidation rather than the start of a sustained bear market. For traders and investors, that means staying attentive to the rotating flows between metals and crypto, watching for confirmation that liquidity is moving back into risk assets, and preparing for the possibility of a major price move should the historical script play out again in 2026.