Russia's Central Bank Says Bitcoin Mining Is Strengthening the Ruble

Russia's central bank has publicly acknowledged that crypto mining is contributing to the ruble's appreciation, but officials caution that the precise magnitude is hard to quantify because much of the activity remains in a gray market. In remarks addressing the sector's influence on foreign exchange markets, Ms. Elvira Nabiullina emphasized that while mining exerts upward pressure on the currency, incomplete data and widespread informal operations complicate accurate measurement.

Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff, pushed the argument further at the Company VTB "Russia Calling!" forum, proposing that crypto mining be considered an export activity because mined digital assets effectively flow abroad without crossing physical borders. According to GFMAG coverage of the panel, Mr. Oreshkin described the sector as "a new export item" that is currently underestimated in official trade accounting, leading to potential mis-forecasts of the ruble's exchange rate.

Industry sources and the Company Industrial Mining Association estimate that Russia mined tens of thousands of Bitcoins annually, with peak summer hashrate levels giving the country over 16% of global hashrate. However, the Bitcoin network halving and other dynamics cut estimated annual output from roughly 55,000 BTC in 2023 to around 35,000 BTC in 2024. Daily mining revenue in some estimates has reached about 1 billion rubles, a nontrivial inflow that can support the currency in foreign exchange markets.

At the same time, Russia's legalization of crypto mining on 1 November 2024 — which requires registration of legal entities and subjects corporate miners to a 25% tax — has not eradicated informal and illegal operations. Reports from Company Ren TV and Company Izvestia document widespread meter manipulation, bribery, and industrial-scale electricity theft. Investigations cited a St. Petersburg miner evading meters since 2018, a hidden Dagestan facility built into coolant tanks, and a bribery case at an Omsk thermal power plant where an employee accepted 500,000 rubles to facilitate theft. These gray activities represent billions of rubles in lost revenue and muddy the data that would show mining's true macroeconomic impact.

Meanwhile, major financial institutions are cautiously engaging. Company Sberbank is piloting decentralized finance tools and offering regulated, crypto-linked investment products worth around 1.5 billion rubles in structured bonds and tokenized portfolios tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum. The bank is reportedly coordinating with the Company Bank of Russia and Company Rosfinmonitoring on frameworks to integrate crypto services while preserving regulatory controls.

Politically, however, voices in the legislature remain restrictive. Mr. Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, reiterated that cryptocurrencies should never become legal tender in Russia and insisted that payments must be conducted in rubles. First Deputy Chairman Mr. Vladimir Chistyukhin warned that laws governing cryptocurrency transactions "must be passed as quickly as possible," underlining the urgency of regulatory clarity even as some central bank officials consider tokenization as a sanctions mitigation tool.

Analysis and implications: For markets and investors, the recognition that mining can support the ruble is important because it links a largely off-chain production activity to sovereign currency dynamics. If a significant share of mining proceeds leaves the country or is converted into foreign currency via informal channels, this acts similarly to an export inflow that strengthens the currency. However, the persistence of illegal mining and electricity theft means official statistics understate the true scale, and sudden enforcement crackdowns or tax policy changes could abruptly alter the flow of mining-related foreign exchange and thus FX sentiment.

From a price perspective, large-scale Russian mining does not directly set Bitcoin market prices, but shifts in miners' behavior (e.g., forced sell-offs, tokenization strategies, or increased onshore conversion) can influence supply-side dynamics. Investors should watch regulatory signals: stronger enforcement or tighter taxation could reduce onshore liquidity, while tokenization and regulated products from banks like Company Sberbank could channel more institutional flows into crypto-linked assets.

Policy recommendation: Authorities and market participants need better traceability and transparent reporting of mining revenues, plus meaningful enforcement against electricity theft, to understand and manage the macroeconomic impacts. For investors, the developing onshore ecosystem — from production to bank-issued tokenized instruments — presents both risk (regulatory reversals) and opportunity (institutionalization and productization of mining revenue exposure).

Source: Company Cryptonews, reporting consolidated from industry associations and Russian media outlets.