Bearish Pattern Spells Trouble for Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls

Bitcoin is trading at a critical juncture between a major resistance near $90,000 and a potential support band between $70,000 and $65,000. Market observers are watching these levels closely as the year closes because a decisive break in either direction could determine the dominant trend for early 2026. Several analysts and on-chain commentators have highlighted formations and indicators that suggest both upside targets and downside risks.

According to Mr. Crypto Patel, a chart shows Bitcoin forming a bearish pennant after a prior 22% decline, with price compressing into a narrowing range. Mr. Crypto Patel wrote that $BTC must break $90,000 to unlock the $107,000 upside. If the breakout fails, however, the technical projection shifts the target to around $70,000, based on the measured move of the preceding drop, and a further slide to $65,000 remains possible. The pennant lines are converging and price sits near the apex; a breakdown from that point would likely follow the direction of the prior move, amplifying bearish momentum.

Mr. Lennaert Snyder emphasized tactical entries: he noted Bitcoin swept into the $86,900 zone, identifying it as an area of interest for long trades. He suggested that he would prefer to see some liquidations occur before committing to longs, and highlighted $85,000 and slightly lower levels as potentially better setups for buying on dips. On the short side, Mr. Lennaert Snyder said he would wait for a push above $90,600 followed by weakness before initiating short positions, and conversely, a strong reclaim above ~$90,600 would prompt him to consider continuation longs.

On the weekly timeframe, Mr. Ali Martienz pointed to a death cross that printed when the 10-week moving average crossed below the 50-week moving average three weeks ago. Historically, similar weekly death crosses in past cycles have preceded deeper drawdowns or extended sideways markets, with past pullbacks ranging approximately -54% to -66%. Mr. Ali Martienz also warned that the current bounce could represent a dead-cat bounce, a temporary recovery inside a broader downtrend. Notably, Bitcoin is trading around the 100-week moving average, a level that has previously marked the beginning of major cycle corrections.

Mr. Daan Crypto Trades added a longer-term perspective, noting that Bitcoin is approaching the lower band of its regression trend or rainbow chart, which he described as a zone between $60,000 and $80,000. Historically, this band is where Bitcoin often resides during broader bear markets (2022 aside), and how price behaves around the lower border could signal either a resumption of an upward trend or the start of a deeper corrective leg into early 2026.

Traders should therefore monitor three critical scenarios: an authoritative break above $90,000–$90,600 that could open a path to $107,000 and continuation longs; a failure at resistance and subsequent drop toward the $70,000–$65,000 support zone; or a prolonged sideways grind under the influence of the weekly death cross, producing larger drawdowns akin to past cycles. Market participants ought to combine pattern recognition (the pennant), weekly momentum signals (death cross), and regression/rainbow band positioning when sizing risk and planning entries.

Source: Company CryptoPotato. For the original chart by Ali Charts and on-chain commentary, traders should review the primary threads and corroborating technical levels. Risk management and position sizing remain essential: if the pennant resolves downward, expect accelerated volatility and possible re-tests of the lower regression band; if a decisive reclaim above ~$90,600 occurs, prepare for a bullish continuation scenario.