Bitcoin at Critical Juncture — Tests the 100-Week MA as Whale Activity and Mixed Signals Mount

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near a defining long-term technical level as the year closes, hovering around $86,700 with a 24-hour volume near $35 billion. After a modest early-week recovery, BTC remains perilously close to the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) — a level that historically has marked the start of major cycle corrections. Traders and investors are watching closely because past breaks below this band have preceded severe drawdowns.

Historically, breaks below the 100-week SMA have led to declines in the range of 35% to 55%. The most recent dramatic example occurred in 2022, when a close beneath this line culminated in a fall of more than 57%. The current pullback already reflects roughly a 31% decline from the prior cycle peak near $126,000, and a confirmed weekly close below this moving average would put Bitcoin at risk of revisiting significantly lower ranges — potentially between $35,000 and $50,000 — if historical patterns repeat.

Technical picture: the 100-week MA is acting as the most consequential floor on the weekly timeframe. The slope of this moving average is flattening, indicating that long-term momentum is decelerating. On shorter timeframes, BTC is attempting to reclaim the 20-day moving average after 78 consecutive days below it. Reclaiming and holding that 20-day MA over the next sessions would be a key short-term bullish sign; failure to hold it would increase the probability of renewed selling pressure.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, signaling subdued momentum and that buyers have not yet regained clear control (source: Company TradingView). A below-50 weekly RSI historically aligns with consolidation and risk of further downside in bear phases.

Market structure and possible scenarios: if BTC closes the weekly candle above the 100-week MA, it may stabilize and set the stage for a tested recovery that rebuilds confidence across timeframes. If it fails and closes below, historical precedent suggests a steeper corrective phase that could retrace to the mid-four-figure to low five-figure levels cited above. Traders should watch the weekly close closely as the decisive event that will likely define price direction into the next cycle.

Sentiment and on-chain/flow signals: analyst Mr. Chain Mind highlighted the significance of the 100-week MA in a public post, noting previous breaks led to significant selloffs; the corresponding tweet is available at Mr. Chain Mind on Twitter. Meanwhile, on-exchange positions provide a nuanced view: long positions held by whales on Company Bitfinex were flagged by analyst Mr. CW as an early sign that larger players might be positioning for a nascent cycle. That said, not all analysts share bullish conviction. Mr. Ali Martinez warned the recent uptick could be a dead-cat bounce, suggesting another leg lower may occur before genuine stabilization.

Notable commentary: Mr. Michaël van de Poppe remarked that reclaiming the 20-day MA could alter the short-term structure but cautioned that confirmation is required, as the 20-day MA has historically acted as a fragile threshold during corrections. Mr. Lark Davis pointed out that Bitcoin has never closed a post-halving year candle in red historically, highlighting the psychological weight around year-end closes.

Implications for traders: risk management must be paramount. The weekly close relative to the 100-week SMA will likely determine whether the market re-enters a deeper corrective phase or starts to re-accumulate. Short-term traders should watch the 20-day MA and the behavior of on-chain whales on exchanges such as Company Bitfinex, while longer-term holders should consider scenario planning for a potential re-test of much lower support bands.

Conclusion: Bitcoin sits at a critical crossroads. The combination of a historically meaningful weekly support line, a flattening long-term slope, sub-50 RSI, and conflicting signals from large holders and technical commentators creates a high-stakes environment. Market participants should prepare for elevated volatility and monitor the weekly candle close as the most important near-term signal. For continuing coverage and charts, see the original report at Company CryptoPotato.