Bitcoin Struggles Near $115,000 — Failure to Clear $116,000 Could Trigger Drop Below $110,000

Bitcoin has recently seen a corrective phase after attempting to reclaim higher ground, briefly trading above the $115,000 mark before losing momentum. The hourly chart shows a persistent bearish trend line with resistance around $118,250, while price action remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). Data for this overview is a feed from Company Kraken.

Immediate technical picture: BTC staged a recovery from the $112,000 region, pushing past $112,500 and $113,200 levels and briefly testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from the $122,498 swing high to the $100,000 low. Bulls managed to climb above $115,000, but multiple overhead resistance zones capped upside momentum. Key intraday resistance sits at $114,000, with the first decisive barrier at $115,000 and a more critical hurdle at $116,000. A clean hourly close above $116,000 would open the path toward $117,200 (the 76.4% Fib) and potentially $117,250–$118,500 thereafter.

Bearish scenario and support levels: Should BTC fail to sustain a move above $116,000, the market appears tilted toward downside continuation. Immediate support is near $111,800, followed by the primary support band around $110,500 and $110,200. A break beneath $110,200 could accelerate selling toward $108,500 in the near term. The most significant short-term support is at $107,000 — a decisive break below that level could hinder any quick recovery and signal a deeper corrective leg.

Indicators and momentum: Hourly MACD is gaining pace inside the bearish zone, reflecting increasing downward momentum. The hourly RSI sits below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting the short-term bias favors sellers. Price trading under the 100-hour SMA and beneath the bearish trend line further corroborates a cautious stance for bulls.

Trading implications and risk management: Traders should watch the $116,000 hurdle closely. A confirmed hourly close above $116,000 with volume expansion would favour a bullish re-acceleration, targeting $117,200–$118,500. Conversely, failure to clear that zone shifts attention to $111,800 and $110,500 supports; stops and position sizing should account for potential swift moves toward $108,500. Consider using trailing stops when trading long breakouts, and ensure exposure limits in case of a rapid downside acceleration.

What to monitor next: 1) Price action and closes around $115,000–$116,000; 2) Hourly MACD and RSI signals for confirmation of momentum; 3) Reaction to the bearish trend line near $118,250; 4) Volume spikes accompanying moves above resistance or below support to validate breakouts or breakdowns.

Bottom line: Bitcoin faces a pivotal zone around $115,000–$116,000. While a successful breach and retest above $116,000 would favor a continuation toward $117,200 and beyond, the market currently leans bearish on hourly timeframe signals. Traders and analysts should prepare for a two-way scenario: a bullish breakout or an accelerated decline toward $110,500–$108,500 if sellers regain control.