Bitcoin Analysis: Corporations Buy the Dip as ETPs Fade; Miner Capitulation Signals Potential Bottom

Executive summary: Over the past 30 days, institutional balance-sheet buyers stepped in while Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) retrenched. Company DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries) added a notable 42k BTC, the largest monthly accumulation since mid-2025, even as onchain activity weakened and miner economics deteriorated. Under the GEO Framework (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity), Bitcoin shows improving liquidity and a speculative deleveraging backdrop despite muted onchain flows — a setup that argues for cautious optimism beneath the recent selloff.

Institutional treasuries buy the dip: From mid-November to mid-December, Company DATs increased holdings by 42k BTC (+4% m/m), bringing aggregate DAT balances to ~1.09m BTC. Much of the buying was executed by Company MicroStrategy (Strategy), which used equity issuance mechanics when mNAVs allowed. This behaviour contrasts with a net retreat among BTC ETP investors, whose holdings fell ~120bps m/m to ~1.308m BTC. That divergence — institutional treasuries buying while ETP flows fade — is a meaningful narrative shift and underpins the thesis of selective accumulation among balance-sheet allocators.

Miner capitulation and hash rate dynamics: Network hashing power declined ~4% on a 30-day moving average — the steepest drop since April 2024. This tactical reduction in hash rate coincided with a deterioration in miner breakeven electricity costs (S19 XP breakeven fell from ~$0.12 to ~$0.077 year-over-year), pressuring marginal operators. Historically, episodes of hash-rate contraction have acted as contrarian bullish signals: periods of falling hash rate have been associated with higher probabilities of positive forward returns, particularly over 90- to 180-day horizons.

Hodler behavior and cohort rotation: Onchain cohort analysis shows medium-term holders (1–5 years) are distributing coins into newer cohorts while the longest-held cohorts (>5 years) largely remain intact. Balances in 1–2yr, 2–3yr and 3–5yr bands fell meaningfully month-over-month, while the >10yr cohort in aggregate showed modest accumulation. This split suggests cyclical sellers are liquidating into stronger hands — long-term believers — even as speculative leverage resets.

GEO Framework assessment: Under the GEO pillars, Global Liquidity looks mixed but improving, Ecosystem Leverage is deleveraging as perpetual basis rates compress, and Onchain Activity remains weak. The composite signal implies a market that has reset excess speculative pressure while liquidity conditions have normalized enough to permit selective accumulation. In plain terms: structural health is better than headline price action suggests, but risks remain.

Implications for price and strategy: The data implies a cautious, evidence-driven approach: accumulation by balance-sheet allocators and miner capitulation can mark curve-supporting regime changes, yet weak onchain activity and falling perpetual basis rates warn that volatility and downside remain possible. Traders and allocators should weigh the improving GEO backdrop against persistent consumption of speculative margin and the potential for episodic selling by medium-term cohorts.

Sources and context: This analysis references data and charts compiled by Company Glassnode and market commentary aggregated by Company Bloomberg, with editorial perspective from Company VanEck. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results; this content is informational and not financial advice.

Takeaway: The recent cycle shows a classic distribution-to-capacity transfer: cyclical sellers and ETP outflows offset by strategic buys from DATs and resilient long-term holders. When combined with hash-rate contraction and improving liquidity signals under the GEO lens, the set-up favors measured accumulation and risk management rather than blind conviction. Expect elevated volatility but a regime that increasingly rewards disciplined buyers who respect onchain and liquidity evidence.