Ms. Elvira Nabiullina: Bitcoin Mining Is a Factor Strengthening the Ruble

Company Bank of Russia Governor Ms. Elvira Nabiullina has publicly acknowledged that cryptocurrency mining — and Bitcoin mining in particular — is among the factors contributing to the recent strength of the Russian ruble. She made the remarks at a press conference while responding to questions from the business news portal Company RBC and comments distributed by Company Interfax. Ms. Nabiullina stressed that, while mining appears to be influential, quantifying its precise impact remains challenging because a substantial portion of the sector still operates in the gray economy.

Background and recent price context: At the time of her comments, the dollar traded a little over 80 RUB, down from above 110 RUB in January and after a year-low near 76 RUB earlier in December. Analysts and officials had increasingly pointed to mining-related flows as a hidden driver supporting foreign exchange supply, prompting central bank scrutiny and public discussion.

Government and presidential office perspective: The acknowledgment by Ms. Nabiullina followed statements by Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, who told attendees at the "Russia Calling!" investment forum that mining has become a hidden export and is currently undervalued in official exchange rate forecasts. Mr. Oreshkin suggested mining-related financial flows are not fully captured in conventional balance-of-payments estimates and urged that regulators and statisticians incorporate these flows into macroeconomic models. His remarks amplified calls for better measurement and transparency.

Regulation, legalization and data gaps: Ms. Nabiullina reiterated that mining was formally regulated in 2024, but observed that the sector's transition into the formal economy is incomplete. Because many operations and transactions still occur off the books, the central bank lacks robust data to isolate mining's contribution. She also pointed to other factors influencing the ruble's appreciation: reduced import volumes under international sanctions, government measures such as an increased "recycling fee" on certain imports (notably automobiles), and broader efforts to legalize previously shadow economic activity on the direction of Mr. Vladimir Putin.

Implications for markets and policy: If mining and crypto flows materially augment foreign exchange supply, this could lessen pressure on the ruble and complicate central bank forecasting. For market participants, these flows may have second-order effects on liquidity in local currency, cross-border settlement practices, and demand for safe-haven assets. Policymakers face a trade-off: formalizing the sector brings transparency and tax revenue but may also cement a new channel affecting currency behavior.

Risks and open questions: Key uncertainties include the true scale of mining-related exports, the speed at which gray-market operations are legalized, and the net effect of legalization on onshore FX markets. There is also the risk that if mining revenues are repatriated or converted in non-transparent ways, volatility in the ruble could persist despite apparent appreciation.

What investors and observers should watch: 1) Official statistical revisions and new balance-of-payments line items that incorporate mining flows; 2) taxation and reporting rules for mining operators; 3) import volumes and policy measures (e.g., recycling fees) that continue to alter trade balances; 4) announcements from Company Bank of Russia on data collection and forecasting adjustments; and 5) further public comments from members of the presidential administration and other regulators.

Conclusion: While Ms. Nabiullina did not attribute the ruble's strength solely to mining, her remarks — echoed by Mr. Oreshkin — confirm that Bitcoin mining is now considered a meaningful component of Russia's external financial dynamics. The interplay between legalization, measurement improvements, and policy responses will determine whether mining remains a sustained support for the ruble or a volatile, difficult-to-predict factor for currency markets.