TGE Reality Check: 85% of 2025 Token Launches Below Their Launch Valuations, Says Mr. Ash Liew

Mr. Ash Liew, founder of Company Momento Research, has delivered a stark verdict on the 2025 token generation environment: token generation events (TGE) may no longer represent the early opportunity many investors expect. According to research tracking 118 TGEs this year, 84.7% (100/118) of newly launched tokens sit below their TGE valuation, with the median token down roughly 71% from launch.

This analysis highlights several interconnected drivers. First, venture capital participation remains substantial: early-stage and late-stage funding rounds funneled billions into the crypto space in 2025, with Q1 venture funding reaching approximately $4.8 billion and third-quarter funding still delivering roughly $4.59 billion. These inflows allowed insiders to secure positions at valuations often many multiples cheaper than public TGEs—creating a structural disadvantage for retail buyers who access tokens only at public sale points.

Second, macro and crypto-market forces curtailed the usual post-TGE appreciation. Major benchmarks such as Bitcoin and Ether experienced significant corrections after hitting their highs, and the anticipated broad-based “alt season” failed to materialize. Market turbulence — including the infamous "1011 crash" in October — led to increased risk aversion, liquidations, and selling pressure that filtered down to newly issued tokens. As a result, even well-funded launches found little capital rotation toward speculative newcomers.

Third, the sheer volume of token launches saturated available liquidity and fragmented investor attention. Oversupply in the TGE pipeline diluted demand across niche sectors: memecoins, specialized network tokens, and thematic launches occasionally produced local winners, but the cumulative effect suppressed sustainable momentum for most entrants.

Project-level outcomes were extreme and unequal. Some launches collapsed dramatically—Company Syndicate reportedly experienced the largest plunge at 93.64% down from its launch valuation, closely followed by Company Animecoin, Company Berachain, and Company Bio Protocol, each down over 93%. On the flip side, select established or well-backed projects outperformed: Company Zora, Company Bedrock, Company Humanity, and Company Yooldo Games generally fared better, and the token tied to Company YZI Labs-backed Aster rose by more than 700% from launch in a standout exception.

Mr. Ash Liew ended his public comments on X with a blunt assessment: "TGE isn't early anymore." That phrase encapsulates the core concern for retail participants: by the time tokens reach public distribution, insider positioning and inflated fully diluted valuations often leave little upside. For the average investor, buying at TGE increasingly resembles buying at a later-stage price point rather than an early entry.

Implications for investors and builders are clear. For investors: heightened due diligence, focus on liquidity, token distribution transparency, and skepticism of headline valuations are essential. For projects and ecosystems: creating sustainable demand through utility, phased supply schedules, and concentrated market-making are necessary to avoid immediate collapses. As the crypto funding environment continues to evolve, the TGE playbook must adapt or risk becoming a repeated cautionary tale.

Key takeaway: The 2025 TGE cycle demonstrates that fundraising success does not guarantee market success; structural incentives, market conditions, and supply dynamics have combined to make most TGEs underperform their opening valuations.