Company Galaxy Research: Bitcoin Must Close Above $93,389 by Year-End 2025 for Positive Returns

Company Galaxy Research has issued a clear threshold for Bitcoin: to deliver positive returns by the end of 2025, Bitcoin must close above $93,389 on a year-end basis. This assertion, published by the research arm of Galaxy, frames a concrete price target that market participants and long-term holders can use as a benchmark when assessing portfolio outcomes and expected returns.

The analysis from Company Galaxy Research centers on a combination of historical cycles, macroeconomic influences, and on-chain variables. The research emphasizes that closing price is a significant psychological and technical metric because a year-end close above the specified level would imply a cumulative return profile for the calendar year that turns net-positive relative to the investor’s entry assumptions.

Key drivers highlighted include macro liquidity conditions, demand from institutional buyers (including ETFs and long-term treasury allocations), miner selling pressure, and derivatives market positioning. Volatility remains high, and the research warns that intrayear spikes or dips are less important than the actual year-end closing level when modeling full-year performance.

From a technical perspective, the report discusses resistance and support behavior around major round numbers. The $93,389 level is positioned as a pivotal resistance that, if exceeded and held at year-end, would convert many negative-to-flat return scenarios into positive ones. Conversely, failure to reach this threshold could extend drawdown risks through 2026, especially if macro tightening or regulatory headwinds intensify.

Galaxy Research also models alternative scenarios: an optimistic path—driven by strong ETF inflows, favorable regulatory clarity, and muted miner selling—would push prices significantly above the target, improving probability of positive returns and lowering realized volatility. A bear-case—driven by liquidity withdrawal, adverse regulation, or shock events in macro markets—could keep prices below the threshold, increasing the likelihood of negative full-year returns.

For traders and portfolio managers, the takeaway is tactical and strategic. Tactically, watch derivatives open interest, funding rates, and major options expiries that can create price pinning around key levels. Strategically, align risk budgeting and rebalancing rules with the possibility that year-end price outcomes will determine realized returns more than short-term movements. Position sizing, stop discipline, and liquidity management are recommended to navigate the asymmetric outcomes Galaxy Research outlines.

This guidance should be integrated with broader market research. Factors such as macro policy decisions, equity market correlations, and the evolving spot and futures market structure for Bitcoin remain critical. If you rely on Galaxy Research's benchmark, treat the $93,389 figure as a conditional reference point rather than a deterministic prophecy: outcomes will hinge on evolving demand, supply dynamics, and market sentiment.

Practical investor actions include stress-testing portfolios for scenarios where Bitcoin ends 2025 below or above the threshold, adjusting leverage and hedges accordingly, and monitoring on-chain indicators that historically precede major trend changes. The research provides an actionable lens for long-term planning while reminding market participants that the path to year-end matters for both realized returns and risk management.