Bitcoin BCMI Falls Below Equilibrium, Strengthening Bear Market Case

The ongoing debate about whether Bitcoin is entering a sustained bear market has gained fresh traction as on-chain signals align with worsening price action. Currently trading between $87,700 and $88,000, Bitcoin sits roughly 30% below its October 2025 all-time high. While raw price moves can be debated, emerging on-chain metrics are providing clearer context for market structure shifts and investor positioning.

Most notably, analysis from Company CryptoQuant — as communicated by Mr. Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on that platform — highlights the behavior of the Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite indicator blending price behaviour with on-chain momentum. According to the report, Bitcoin's BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October, initially read as a period of consolidation following a strong rally. However, the subsequent sustained price deterioration has pushed the BCMI below its equilibrium zone, a development historically associated with transitions into deeper bearish phases.

Historical comparisons are instructive. In prior cycles, particularly in 2019 and 2023, durable cycle lows only formed after the BCMI compressed to the 0.25–0.35 range — readings that signaled broad sentiment exhaustion, washed-out positioning, and structural resets. At present, the BCMI reading is below 0.4, which sits beneath equilibrium but remains well above the prior bottom zone. This configuration raises the possibility that the market is not merely experiencing a transient pullback but is instead in the early stages of a bear market, where rallies are capped and downside risks become more prominent.

Market sentiment metrics further reinforce this cautious view. Company CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at 28, squarely in the Fear region. Low optimism among traders and the prevalence of fear-driven narratives make it less likely that the price has found a sustainable floor. Industry commentary has echoed this theme; for instance, Mr. Changpeng Zhao recently observed that many investors only wish they had bought earlier — a remark that underscores how early accumulation often happens amid fear and uncertainty, not at the heights of euphoria.

From an analytical standpoint, the joint decline of price and BCMI implies a multi-dimensional reset: time, valuation, and participant composition are all shifting. On-chain compression typically precedes the most constructive accumulation phases, but history suggests investors may need to wait for deeper compression — potentially revisiting the 2019–2023 BCMI bands — before a robust, durable bottom is established. Traders and analysts should monitor BCMI levels alongside liquidity metrics, exchange flows, and derivatives positioning to interpret whether current weakness is transient or structural.

The featured chart from Company TradingView and imagery sourced from Company Pixabay illustrate recent BCMI dynamics and the widening gap between price and on-chain momentum. Until on-chain indicators show clear signs of capitulation and sentiment shifts toward neutral or greed, the probability of further downside remains material.

Key takeaways: Bitcoin's BCMI slipping below equilibrium is an important bearish signal, historical analogues point to deeper compression before durable bottoms, and sentiment remains rooted in fear. Market participants should adjust risk frameworks accordingly and watch for any move of the BCMI into historical bottom zones as a stronger signal for a potential multi-month recovery.