Bitcoin Options Expiry Dec 26, 2025 Could Spark 5–7% Swing as Liquidity Thins

Company QCP analysts warn that the Bitcoin options expiry on December 26, 2025 — totaling about $23.7 billion notional — could trigger a notable short-term price move for BTC. With holiday market liquidity reduced and open interest dwindling, the expiry may catalyze a 5–7% intraday or multi-day swing that first pressures prices toward the $82k–$84k support band before a recovery attempt toward the estimated $95k max pain level.

Over December, Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively tight range between $85k and $92k. That consolidation, combined with declining open interest, means there are fewer counterparty positions available to absorb rapid flows from option hedging and delta- related adjustments. In plain terms: when option holders and market makers hedge around a large expiry, the market can move more sharply if liquidity is thin.

The $23.7 billion figure reflects notional open interest across listed options expiring on the 26th; while not all notional value translates directly into immediate delta pressure, the concentration near key strike clusters makes localized price impacts more likely. Company QCP highlights that the holiday timing exacerbates conditions: many institutional desks and liquidity providers operate with reduced capacity during year-end, so predictable hedging flows may push price through nearby support before a reversion toward key pain points.

Technically, market participants should watch the $82k–$84k area as a potential short-term support zone if the predicted 5–7% dip materializes. Failure to hold this band could invite deeper retracements, whereas successful defense would likely be followed by short-covering and renewed buying interest, aiming at the $95k cluster where the largest pain for option sellers may reside. Traders should also monitor open interest changes and option gamma exposure in the days leading up to expiry to gauge the likelihood and speed of any move.

Risk management is crucial: stop placement, size adjustment, and scenario planning for thin liquidity are essential when trading around large expiries. For longer-term investors the event may be a transient volatility spike rather than a structural trend change, but shorter-term strategies — including those that seek to capture mispricings around gamma and delta flows — can be materially affected.

In summary, Company QCP expects holiday-thinned liquidity combined with a $23.7 billion Bitcoin options expiry to produce a meaningful short-term move — potentially a 5–7% swing down to $82k–$84k before a rally toward the $95k max pain area. Market participants should prepare for elevated volatility, track open interest and gamma profiles, and size positions accordingly ahead of the December 26 expiry.