Analyst Mr. Ali Martinez Sees Potential Bear Market for Bitcoin, Predicts Next Bottom Near $37,500 Around October 2026

As Bitcoin struggles to hold below the $90,000 threshold, market participants are increasingly weighing the possibility of a renewed bear market. Mr. Ali Martinez has highlighted a recurring historical cycle that, if repeated, points toward a correction window that could culminate in a new bottom near $37,500 around October 2026.

Historical Cycle Insight: In a recent social post, Mr. Ali Martinez emphasized a pattern where Bitcoin typically takes about 1,064 days to move from a market bottom to a market top, followed by approximately 364 days from that top back down to the next bottom. The pattern is visible across prior cycles: the 2015 bottom to the 2017 peak matched the 1,064-day span, and the subsequent 364-day bear phase concluded in December 2018. The 2018 bottom to the November 2021 peak also adhered to the 1,064-day interval, with a roughly 364-day retreat finishing in November 2022.

Current Cycle and Timing: According to the analyst, the market entered what may be considered the third cycle with a bottom in November 2022 and a peak that exceeded $126,000 in October. Using the historical 364-day correction window, Bitcoin would be inside a correction period that suggests a potential low could materialize around October 2026 — roughly 288 days from today based on the timeline referenced in the analysis.

Projected Retracement and Price Target: Examining past bear markets provides perspective on magnitude. The 2017–2018 correction reached around 84%, while the 2021–2022 drawdown was near 77%. Averaging those two retracements yields an approximate 80% pullback. Applying an 80% retracement to the recent peak positions the next potential bottom near $37,500. Given the current trading level near $88,290, the market already reflects a sizable drawdown from the high — about a 30% gap from the peak.

Support and Resistance Considerations: From a technical vantage, the $90,000 area is now acting as immediate resistance; failure to reclaim and sustain above that level would reinforce bearish sentiment. Key support levels to monitor include the psychological and technical zones around $60,000, $45,000, and the proposed bottom near $37,500. If the market follows the historical template and momentum weakens, traders should prepare for increased volatility and larger downside moves that could test multi-year support.

Risk, Context and Alternative Scenarios: While the cyclical framework presented by Mr. Ali Martinez offers a clear timeline-based scenario, markets are influenced by macro conditions, liquidity flows, regulatory shifts, and unexpected catalysts. Upside scenarios remain feasible: renewed institutional demand, favorable regulation, or macro tailwinds could truncate the correction and shift the timing of any bottom. Conversely, deeper-than-expected macro tightening or a liquidity shock could push prices below modeled targets.

Data and Attribution: The chart referenced in the original analysis comes from Company TradingView.com, and the featured image was generated by Company DALL-E. Observers should cross-check historical timestamps and price data when comparing cycles, and consider that averages and historical analogues do not guarantee future performance.

Editor’s Take: This analysis frames a credible scenario where Bitcoin could enter a deeper correction phase with a target near $37,500 by October 2026 if historical cycle lengths and average retracement percentages repeat. For traders and investors, the primary takeaways are to identify and monitor critical support/resistance zones, manage position sizing carefully, and remain open to alternative outcomes that deviate from past cycles.